Sporting Lisbon - Dortmund: Tips, prognosis & odds - 11/24/2021 - EUROPE: Champions League - Group stage
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Sporting Lisbon - Dortmund: Tips, prognosis & odds - 11/24/2021 - EUROPE: Champions League - Group stage
Preliminary duel in group C between Sporting CP and Dortmund - analysis
Ajax Amsterdam is already safely qualified for the round of 16 in Champions League group C. Behind them are Borussia Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon with 6 points each and are fighting for second place. In the direct duel between the two clubs this week, a preliminary decision could already be made. We tend to bet under 3.5 goals.
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A maximum of 3 goals at the Estádio José Alvalade?
In the Champions League group stage, the penultimate matchday will be played this week. As part of this, the second leg between Sporting Lisbon and Borussia Dortmund will take place on Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 at 9:00 p.m. The German representative won the first leg 1-0, but in the second leg the reigning Portuguese champions have the home advantage on their side. In the domestic league, he convinces with an extremely safe defense. Can he now transfer this defensive strength to the premier class, so that a maximum of 3 goals will be scored at the Estádio José Alvalade?
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Sporting Lisbon
- won the last 9 competitive games
- conceded only 4 goals within these 9 games
- under 3.5 hits in all 11 league games
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Borussia Dortmund
- last lost 2 times in the Champions League against Ajax
- 3 defeats across all competitions from the last 4 away games
- Erling Haaland is injured
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Sporting Lisbon is difficult to beat defensively
After 19 years, Sporting Lisbon became Portuguese champions for the first time last season. For this reason, the capital club can also take part in the Champions League group stage this year. After coach Ruben Amorim's team lost the first leg against Ajax Amsterdam and Borussia Dortmund there, they won two games against Besiktas Istanbul.
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Sporting CP won 4-1 in Turkey and 4-0 at home. Before the penultimate match day, the Portuguese are now in third place and are level on points with the runner-up, Borussia Dortmund. The upcoming second leg between the two parties could be decisive. The winner has a good chance of progressing. Ajax Amsterdam is already safely qualified for the round of 16 due to 4 wins from 4 games.
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For Dortmund's Borussia next Wednesday, perhaps the most important game of the current season is on the program. The direct duel with Sporting Lisbon is about making it to the Champions League round of 16. Because BVB won the first leg 1-0 in front of their home crowd, a draw in Portugal is enough to have progress in your own hands on the final day of the match.
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This starting constellation naturally plays into the cards of the black and yellow, especially since they have struggled several times in the recent past without top striker Haaland to aggressively bring the necessary punch onto the pitch. As the odds between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund underline, the task for the Bundesliga club will not be a walk in the park, especially since the home side are going into this match with the recommendation of six consecutive league wins.
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Although the capitals did not have much to report against German opponents in their European Cup history, a forecast on the three-way market between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund is associated with many eventualities and consequently with a risk that is difficult to calculate. Not least because of this, it makes sense to consider potential bets on the various goal markets.
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Sporting Lisbon - stats & current form
The fans of Sporting Lisbon had to wait almost 20 years for the 19th championship in their Portuguese homeland. At the end of last season the time had finally come. Thanks to a sensational round with only one defeat in 34 encounters, the "Leões" deservedly put on the national crown. For the first time since 2017/18, Sporting is again represented in the premier league of international football.
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The fact that there is still a chance of reaching the round of 16 after four out of six match days can definitely be viewed as a success for the Portuguese champions. In relative terms, however, it must be noted that the six points collected so far come only from the two matches against the overwhelmed Besiktas. The other two games against Ajax and Dortmund were known to be lost, against the first-named team even significantly.
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Sporting Lisbon are currently in very good shape. The 19-time champion was able to make all of his past 9 competitive games victorious. The showpiece of the "lions" is the defense. Within these 9 games, they only conceded 4 goals in total. Therefore 8 of the previous 11 league games by Sporting CP ended with a maximum of 2 hits. In addition, none of the reigning champions' games in Liga Portugal bwin have scored more than 3.5 goals. He is there on the 2nd place in the table, but is equal on points with the first place, FC Porto. For over 2 months the capital club has not left a point at home.
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Sporting too green behind the ears for the "big" games?
Against this background, the question must of course be allowed whether the current second in the table will be able to defeat a guest who is very renowned in Europe on Wednesday evening? If we look at the statistics, the question marks get even bigger, because after all, no other European football club has lost more defeats to German clubs in the Champions League than Sporting Lisbon. Of the 13 matches against Bundesliga clubs ten were lost. There were 32 goals conceded!
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The current condition of coach Rúben Amorim's team is also impressive. In the league, SCP has six wins in a row. Particularly impressive: Five of these six successes could be won without conceding a goal. The defensive, which had to swallow only one goal in the past three matches after the violent 1: 5 clap on the first CL matchday against Ajax, is therefore undoubtedly the showpiece of the team.
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Because the footballing approach is more of a wait-and-see and tactical approach anyway, we do not assume that the hosts, knowing that a win is imperative, will rush off right from the start. Only as the game continues, the Amorim-Elf should gradually increase the risk, which is to be cited as a valid argument when it comes to teasing the odds for more goals in the second half between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund.
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Expected formation of Sporting Lisbon:
Adan - Goncalo Inacio, Coates, Feddal - Pedro Porro, Joao Palhinha, Matheus Nunes, Matheus Reis - Pedro Goncalves, Paulinho, Sarabia
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Without Haaland, Borussia Dortmund's offensive is more harmless
After two consecutive defeats across all competitions, Borussia Dortmund was able to record another victory last weekend. The club from the Ruhr area won 2-1 at home against VfB Stuttgart. Despite the win, coach Marco Rose's team noticed the failure of attacker Erling Haaland. Without the Norwegian international, BVB lacks a goal guarantee. Last Saturday, new signing Donyell Malen took on the role of Haaland. However, the Dutchman has not yet really arrived in Dortmund and has only scored two competitive goals. He made the debut goal for his new club in the Champions League first leg against Sporting Lisbon.
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Now the second leg in Portugal is on the program. With a draw, the black and yellow would have a good chance of making it into the round of 16. Then a win against Besiktas Istanbul on the last day of the match would be enough for them. If they lost to Sporting, they would have to hope for a win from Ajax Amsterdam on the final day of the match.
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Against the Dutch record champions Borussia Dortmund had almost no chance twice. BVB lost the first leg in Amsterdam with 0: 4 and the second leg in their own stadium with 1: 3. He will not be able to overtake Ajax. Now it is time to focus on rank 2. There the 8-time German champion is also in the 1st Bundesliga. With a record of 9 wins and 3 defeats, the gap to FC Bayern Munich is only one point. While Dortmund won all 7 league home games, they lost 3 of their 5 guest appearances.
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Dortmund - statistics & current form
On Wednesday evening, from Dortmund's point of view, a season that has so far been good in terms of results could turn into a disappointing one. Should the black and yellow lose their away game at Sporting by two or more goals difference, the train towards the round of 16 would have left after the fifth match day.
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This admittedly rather pessimistic approach can also be reversed, because if Borussia should leave the Portuguese capital with three points in their luggage, they would no longer be able to take second place behind Ajax Amsterdam. Even in the event of a draw, there are many indications that the Bundesliga team will advance, especially since the Rose-Elf will be able to play against Besiktas at home in two weeks, while Sporting, who will then continue to have tied points, will have to travel to the Netherlands at the end of the group stage.
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The Dortmund game is a bit more cautious at the moment
While the BVB matches with Erling Haaland in the front line were mostly characterized by many goals and offensive spectacles, the balance in the game of the reigning DFB Cup winners has recently changed a bit without the Norwegians.
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The defense now deserves more focus, which is noticeable, among other things, in the fact that there have been relatively "only” five goals against in the last five Bundesliga games. Only one of these conceded goals went back to the respective first half. In the premier class, only two of the total goals were conceded in the first 45 minutes. Because the team of coach Marco Rose does not have to take any unnecessary risk due to the starting position, the prognosis for a low goal first half or more goals after the break is absolutely close between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund.
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In terms of personnel, the current second place in the Bundesliga, who struggled to a narrow 2-1 win against VfB Stuttgart on Saturday and thus reduced the gap to front runner Bavaria to one point, will in any case have to do without Mats Hummels. In the 1: 3 bankruptcy against Ajax, the defense chief was wrongly expelled from the pitch after a maximum yellow-worthy foul. The usual long-term injuries such as Morey, Reyna, Schulz, Wolf or Haaland are also no longer an option.
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Expected formation of Dortmund:
Kobel - Meunier, Akanji, Zagadou, Guerreiro - Dahoud - Brandt, Bellingham - Reus, Malen, T. Hazard
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Sporting Lisbon - Dortmund direct comparison
In 2016/17 and 2021/22 Sporting Lisbon and Borussia Dortmund were each drawn into a Champions League group. In the previous three clashes there have only been wins for BVB, incidentally always with exactly one goal ahead. The first leg of the current season ended just 1-0 for the black and yellow, who have never drawn in 13 games with Portuguese clubs (nine wins, four defeats). Also interesting: only Galatasaray was able to defeat the multiple German champions in the premier class more often than Sporting.
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Betting base forecast & Portugal Sporting Lisbon - Dortmund Germany tip
All football fans who stick with BVB are looking forward to an important evening on Wednesday. Then it comes to the second leg of the two direct competitors Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund. According to the betting odds, the guests from the Ruhr area will be given a slight advantage, although, similar to the first leg, which ended 1-0 for the Bundesliga club, we will most likely face a close match at eye level.
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In particular, the interesting starting position must be taken into account with regard to a suitable bet. The fact is that the home side absolutely need a victory in order to overtake the Rose-Elf in the standings. That in turn should play the Westphalia in the cards, which would keep progress on the sixth game day in their own hand with a draw.
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5 OPTA-FACTS - SPORTING LISBON VS. DORTMUND TIP:
- Sporting have lost ten of 13 Champions League games against German teams
- 13 attempts against Portuguese teams have not yet resulted in a draw for BVB
- Dortmund would move into the round of 16 in the event of a win
- With Haaland, Dortmund scored an average of 0.5 more goals per game in the CL
- Sporting took all six points in this group against Besiktas
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Because the bottom line is that it is too risky for us to place a bet on the three-way market, we decided between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund that there will be more goals in the second half than in the first half. Especially in the early stages, both teams will be careful not to fall behind. As the game progresses, the Portuguese have to take more risks, which will inevitably give BVB room.
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We found an attractive 1.95 for this recommendation via the Bet365 app, which we alluded to with a stake of six units. Incidentally, it is quite possible that the score is still 0-0 at halftime, because neither team will take excessive risks in the all-important direct duel.
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Betting tip and forecast
The second leg between Sporting Lisbon and Borussia Dortmund is of great importance for both parties. They are equal on points and are fighting for second place. The Bundesliga side won the first leg 1-0 at home, but at the second clash this year, the reigning Portuguese champions now have the home advantage on their side. While he was able to win all of the last 6 home games, the Dortmund team lost 3 of their last 4 guest appearances.
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According to our analysis, we recommend a draw no bet in favor of Sporting Lisbon. However, we consider the tip below 3.5 goals safer. The showpiece of the capital club is the defensive. He conceded only 4 goals in the last 9 competitive games. Borussia Dortmund's attacking risk is significantly reduced on the other side by the failure of Erling Haaland.
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