Spain - Sweden: Tips, prognosis & odds - 11/14/2021 - EUROPE: World Cup - qualification 2022
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Spain - Sweden: Tips, prognosis & odds - 11/14/2021 - EUROPE: World Cup - qualification 2022
Last match day of the World Cup qualification - and the first in the table meets the second in a direct duel for group victory and direct participation in the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. The constellation couldn't have been more beautiful and exciting. This is the case in some groups in the World Cup qualifying, including Group B.
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Here it comes to the final between Spain and Sweden. The betting odds speak an astonishingly clear language before the game, in which the starting position is also very clear.
Sweden desperately needs a win on Sunday to jump to first place on the final day of the match. The reason is the bitter slip in Georgia on Thursday evening, through which the Swedish national team lost the table lead again and thus gambled away the good starting position.
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Now a draw is enough for the Spaniards in the home game at La Cartuja Olympic Stadium in Seville to book the ticket for the World Cup finals in Qatar. At first glance, giving a prognosis in favor of the home team in Spain vs. Sweden does not seem particularly lucrative, after all, in Spain vs. Sweden, odds of 1.38 are offered on the tip home win.
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If you want to find out more about this game - as well as about the other various finals on the last qualifying matchday, because there are real final duels for the World Cup in Italy vs. Switzerland, Portugal vs. Serbia, Netherlands vs. Norway or Croatia vs. Russia -Ticket - our Talk & Tips podcast is recommended. In the current episode of the World Cup qualifying, those games are discussed in detail by our experts.
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Spain - statistics & current form
The starting position of the Spaniards before the last game day and the decisive duel with Sweden is surprisingly good, because on the 9th game day the tide turned unexpectedly.
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The previous league leaders Sweden surprisingly lost their game early in the evening in Georgia 2-0, so there was good news for Spain even before the important game kicked off in Greece on Thursday. Then La Roja did her homework in Athens as dutifully as possible, if not really convincingly.
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The Spaniards won 1-0 against their pursuers Greece, jumping to 1st place just before the last match day - and now they have even more progress in their own hands than before. Because in the group B table, Spain ranks one point ahead of Sweden with 16 points.
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Spain is enough to draw against Sweden - including interesting odds
Before the 9th match day, when Sweden was first, Spain absolutely needed a win against Tre Kronor, now a draw is enough. The pressure, it is now on the Swedes. So Spain can do what they did for long stretches of the game in the narrow and tenacious win in Greece: Have a lot of possession, control the game and despair the opponent without having to risk a lot. Therefore, if you put your tip on the tie in Spain vs. Sweden, you will surprisingly receive very strong odds of 4.70 on average.
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Because Spain is the clear favorite in this game, so the odds on the other two outcomes are high in the final Spain against Sweden.
Expected formation of Spain:
Simon - Carvajal, Laporto, I. Martinez, Alba - Busquets, Koke, Gavi - Sarabia, Morata, Olmo
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Sweden - statistics & current form
Before the 9th match day, things looked rosy for the Swedes: As the front runner in the group, Swedes had everything in their own hands. A win in Georgia was a must, then you would have gone into the showdown against Spain as leaders - a draw on the last day would have been enough to book the World Cup ticket.
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But the unexpected 2-0 defeat in Georgia on Thursday evening thwarted the Swedes' plans and completely changed the starting position before the final with Spain. Sweden has slipped to second place and now absolutely needs three points in Seville, otherwise the Scandinavians will have to go to the playoffs.
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Sweden's poor record in away games
The bankruptcy in Georgia was the second away defeat in a row, before that there was a 2-1 defeat in Greece in September. So Sweden lost two of the three away games in the World Cup qualifying, not exactly an encouragement before the do-or-die game at La Cartuja in Seville. Also in the international match year 2020, the Tre Kronor presented themselves weakly abroad, here they lost four out of five guest appearances - all three in the Nations League in Croatia, Portugal and France as well as a friendly match in Denmark.
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In view of these results, it is a little less surprising that the top game Spain vs. Sweden has odds of up to 9.00 on the away win - the best bookmakers do not trust the Swedes in Spain very much.
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Sweden already showed in the first leg that they know how to beat the favorite Iberians - at that time, of course, that was successful in a home game, where Sweden feels much more comfortable.
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Expected formation of Sweden:
Olsen - Krafth, Lindelöf, Nilsson, Augustinsson - Kulusevski, Svanberg, Olsson, Forsberg - Isak. Ibrahimovic
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Spain - Sweden direct comparison
Can the Swedes win the much-needed victory against Spain? As already mentioned, that happened in the first meeting at the beginning of September, when Sweden won 2-1 in Solna - even after falling behind.
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Incidentally, it is the third meeting within six months, because this pairing already existed at the European Championships - Sweden also made a guest appearance at La Cartuja in Seville. In the EM group stage, they separated 0-0 from the Spaniards. However, this result would now be enough for the home side to qualify for the World Cup.
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Betting base forecast & Spain Spain - Sweden Sweden tip
Sweden have to risk a lot - and put aside their weakness away from home. The Scandinavians can only book the World Cup ticket directly if they win in Seville.
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Means: Sweden has to play forward - so Spain should have more space than usual in their games. Because as a rule, Luis Enrique's team has the ball and has to see how unyielding defensive chains can be levered out. Sweden used the same tactic at the European Championships against Spain in the same stadium, at that time Spain did not get past 0-0 despite 80 percent possession.
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KEY FACTS - SPAIN VS. SWEDEN TIP
- Sweden won the 'first leg' against Spain 2-1
- A draw is enough for Spain, Sweden has to win to book the Qatar ticket
- Spain have not won the last three duels against Sweden
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Both this tactic and this result would play the home side in the cards this time. Wait forever, leaving the ball to Spain as usual would not be a winning tactic. Therefore, one should expect a more open game, similar to the first duel in September, when both acted with open sights.
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If you add the Swedes' away problems, we expect an exciting final with goals - and ultimately a better ending for Spain. Therefore our tip for Spain vs. Sweden is: Spain wins and both score.
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