Bournemouth vs. Swansea tip, prognosis & odds 16.03.2021 - Championship Free soccer tips
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Bournemouth - Swansea tip, prognosis and odds - Championship
Slowly but surely, the English championship is also entering the home straight. The 37th matchday (out of a total of 46) is on the program on Tuesday and Wednesday. Two teams will meet in the Vitality Stadium, whose goal is to return to the English Premier League. The game between Bournemouth and Swansea will kick off on Tuesday at 8:45 p.m.
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Although promotion is the big goal for both teams, the starting situation before the direct duel could not be more different. The Cherries from Bournemouth recently had huge problems and were ranked in the table, while the guests from Wales swim on the wave of success.
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For Bournemouth it is a kind of "last chance” in the fight for the playoff place, after all, the gap is now five points. The Welsh guests, on the other hand, are currently not on the direct promotion site only due to the poorer goal difference against Watford. Although the form advantages can definitely be seen in the guests, the best bookmakers in the game Bournemouth vs. Swansea rate the host as a clear favorite according to current betting odds.
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Are the odds of just over 2.00 for the home win really justified? Or does a bet in the direction of the guests from Wales offer greater value? These questions should be clarified in this article. The betting category Football England not only provides previews of Premier League games, but the top games of the championship are also regularly scrutinized at the betting base.
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Bournemouth stats & current form
Due to relegation last season, Eddie Howe's engagement with the Cherries ended after almost eight years. His previous assistant coach Jason Tindall should manage the direct return to the English House of Lords. For a long time things went according to plan for the Cherries, but at the beginning of 2021 the team slipped into a crisis.
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Tindall was released from his duties after a 3-1 draw against Reading at the end of January and ex-professional Jonathan Woodgate took over the duties on an interim basis until the end of the season. For the 2021/22 season, the club is hoping to sign Thierry Henry.
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Home record gives the Cherries hope
Woodgate has now played ten championship games on the sidelines and has a completely balanced 4-2-4 record. The defeat last weekend in particular was extremely bitter because the 3-2 draw against FC Barnsley was also a direct duel. Due to the bankruptcy against the Ismael-Elf, Bournemouth is now five points behind Barnsley, sixth in the table.
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Bournemouth were still 2-1 ahead at halftime, but conceded two more goals and suffered their fifth defeat in their 18th home game. On the other hand, there are ten wins in 18 games, which means sixth place in the home table. The home statistics are quite impressive and are therefore an argument why at Bournemouth vs. Swansea the prognosis for the host's victory is seen as the most likely outcome. However, value cannot be determined with the current betting odds.
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Eight times to zero in the vitality stage
The second rate championship is generally a league in which a lot of football is fought and little football is played. Dedication and passion are two existential virtues and playfulness is only of secondary importance. Many games are accordingly competitive and end extremely close. The matches are not a feast for the eyes for fans of offensive football.
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In general, this season only 40% of games end with a successful bet on the over 2.5. With 44% (16 of 36) Bournemouth is slightly above the league average. However, the tip on the under 2.5 seems promising on Tuesday evening at Bournemouth against Swansea. Goalkeeper Asmir Begovic has been able to keep the zero in eight of the 18 home games this season. A peat festival, like on the weekend, is not necessarily to be expected.
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Expected formation of Bournemouth:
Begovic - Kelly, Carter-Vickers, Cook, Smith - Pearson, Lerma - Danjuma, Solange, Stanislas - Long
Swansea - stats & current form
The Welsh representative is only three goals behind Watford FC in third place in the current championship table. In contrast to the Hornets from London, Swansea has played one game less. Coach Steve Cooper's team still has a game to catch up against the penultimate Sheffield Wednesday. In the fight for direct promotion (third to sixth place play the third promoted player in the playoffs), the "Swans" currently have a small advantage on their side.
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Best defense in the league
A big plus point at Swansea is definitely the convincing defense. Goalkeeper Freddie Woodman (on loan from Newcastle United) played 34 of the 35 possible games in 2020/21 and kept his box clean no fewer than 18 times (!). With a total of just 25 goals against, the Welsh have the best defense in the league. These numbers are definitely other strong arguments that underline Bournemouth vs. Swansea's forecast of below 2.5.
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In the away games in particular, Swansea averaged just 2.18 goals per game and only four of the 17 guest appearances ended with an over 2.5. Nevertheless, odds of under 2.5 are around 1.70 in the betting base comparison.
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Ten points from the last four games
The hosts from Bournemouth have recently suffered a few setbacks, but the Welsh representative is in very good shape and has collected ten out of twelve points in the last four league games. Only in the duel with the Blackburn Rovers did the Cooper-Elf suffer a point loss, the three remaining games were each won by one goal (2: 1, 2: 1, 1: 0).
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Overall, Swansea was able to win ten of the 20 league victories by one goal, the ten other successes were each two goals ahead. Swansea only scored more than two goals this season in their 3-1 win over Rotherham in late January.
Expected formation of Swansea:
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Woodman - Bennett, Latibeaudiere, Naughton - Manning, Smith, Grimes, Roberts - Hourihane, Dhanda - Ayew
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Direct comparison / H2H
This duel took place six times in the English Premier League between 2015 and 2018, and the Cherries from Bournemouth have very fond memories of the swans from Wales. After all, Bournemouth celebrated four wins in those six games and drew twice.
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In the first duel of the current season, the fans waited in vain in front of the TV sets for a goal, while the aspirants for promotion parted goalless at Swansea's Liberty Stadium. The Swans have been unsuccessful against the Cherries since the 11th matchday of the 2007/08 season (then in the third-tier League One).
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Bet base forecast & Bournemouth - Swansea tip
Another defeat could actually mean the end of the Premier League dreams for the Cherries, while the guests could land a big point in the fight for direct promotion. Since the championship is generally very even, it is often very difficult to make predictions in the 1X2 market. In any case, the tip on the home win offers no value between Bournemouth and Swansea.
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The current form of the home side clearly speaks against this bet and maximum betting odds of 2.20 are clearly too low. In terms of quality, both teams are on a similar level and since the guests have a good away record (9-4-4), the tip on the draw no bet market in favor of the guests is targeted at Bournemouth vs. Swansea.
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In the event of a draw there is money back, otherwise a 2.50 lures for the Swansea triumph in this bet. With the protection of the cashback a very lucrative betting option.
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