HJK vs. Malmö: bet, prognosis & odds - 07/27/2021 - EUROPE: Champions League - qualification
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HJK vs. Malmö: bet, prognosis & odds - 07/27/2021 - EUROPE: Champions League - qualification
Can Helsinki make it exciting again?
With last Wednesday's 2-1 victory in the back of their hand, Malmö FF are in a good position to survive the second qualifying round for the UEFA Champions League in one piece. The Swedes now also benefit from the abolished away goal regulation. If a 1-0 home win had been enough for the Finns last season because of the goal in Malmö to advance, a 1-0 today would only lead to extra time.
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In any case, in the run-up to the encounter between HJK and Malmö, the odds in the direction of the guests, who on the whole are also significantly more experienced internationally than the men from Helsinki.
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The interim equalization in the past week should nevertheless have made the Finns aware that something could be gained against the stronger Swedes. Malmö should also be warned accordingly. We expect the guests to wait and see, cautiously and on our own defensive. After all, every draw would be enough to buy the ticket for the third qualifying round, in which the Glasgow Rangers then wait for the winner of this duel.
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The highest value is accordingly to be found at HJK against Malmö in the tip on under 2.5 goals. If you are looking for a bookmaker with a German license and a € 100 deposit bonus to place your bet, you should also take a closer look at the betting base test report on Happybet.
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HJK - statistics & current form
Helsingin jalkapalloklubi is playing a very strong year in 2021. However, that did not protect HJK from suffering two setbacks in the last week. First there was the first defeat since September 2020 in the league on Saturday before the first leg against Malmö FF. And then the match in Sweden was lost 2-1.
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This means that the 30-time Finnish champion, who is currently leading the Finnish Veikkausliiga by six points, is once again on the verge of losing the qualification. Most recently, HJK failed on its way to the Champions League ten times in a row at the latest in the third qualifying round.
Helsinki needs a win by two goals
Nevertheless, the goal of Roope Riski in Malmö is at least accompanied by the knowledge that the kickers from the Finnish capital can basically keep up with their Swedish neighbors.
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The only problem now is that a home win with a goal difference would only lead to overtime. Accordingly, HJK has to play for a win with a two-goal difference if Toni Koskela's troops want to survive the second qualifying round. After all: In the first qualifying round there was already a 3-1 home win against Podgorica in the local Bolt Arena.
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Twelve of the last 14 competitive games have been won
The Finns, who celebrated a 2-0 home win over FC Haka at the weekend, also succeeded in the dress rehearsal. A result that would also be enough to turn the tide again. After two defeats in a row, Helsinki also partially restored momentum.
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Overall, the latest balance reads well. The Koskela-Elf has won twelve of the last 14 competitive games. Nevertheless, the Swedish opponents are now simply a different caliber than the usual opponents in the Finnish Veikkausliiga. This is one of the reasons why the odds against the capital city speak at HJK against Malmö, for whose home win the bookmaker Bet3000, tested by betting base, advertises quotations of 3.50.
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Expected formation of HJK:
Tannander - O’Shaughnessy - Tenho - Moren - Saksela - Lingman - Jair - Valencic - Tanaka - Browne - Riski
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Malmö - statistics & current form
Malmö FF could ultimately be satisfied with the 2-1 home win over HJK Helsinki. The Himmelsblått (in German: the Himmelblauen) celebrated an important home win, which in connection with the abolished away goal regulation now ensures an excellent starting position.
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If Jon Dahl Tomasson's team can hold the draw or even win it in the Finnish Bolt Arena, nothing will stand in the way of entry into the third qualifying round. On the other hand, should it come to a 0-1 deficit, Malmö would not be forced to respond immediately.
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Are the Swedes lurking in Helsinki on the counterattack?
It is precisely that starting position that makes the tip of under 2.5 goals so promising at HJK against Malmö. After all, the Swedes can afford to concentrate fully on their defense. In this way Helsinki is forced to make the game. Sooner or later this should open up spaces for the Tomasson selection.
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Rooms that players like Antonio Colak, loaned from Saloniki, could then take advantage of as ice-cold. The dangerous 27-year-old marked the opening goal in the first leg shortly before the break due to a carelessness by HJK.
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Unbeaten in six competitive games
Incidentally, Malmö FF also succeeded in the dress rehearsal on Saturday. In the Allsvenskan, where Djurgardens IF is still first place two points ahead of one game, the Himmelsblått celebrated an undisputed 2-0 away win at Mjällby AIF.
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Overall, the reigning Swedish champions, who even made it to the final of the European Cup in 1979, have not lost any of their last six competitive games (five wins, one draw). With a corresponding amount of tailwind, the Tomasson-Elf can now start the journey to the Finnish capital.
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Expected formation of Malmö:
Dahlin - Knudsen - Nielsen - Ahmedhozic - Larsson - Rakip - Nanasi - Lewicki - Rieks - Berget - Colak
Direct comparison / H2H
Last Wednesday's first leg was the first meeting of the two teams in a competitive game. Accordingly, there is no "head to head" data from the past that could influence the forecast for the second leg at HJK against Malmö.
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Bet base forecast & Finland HJK - Malmö Sweden tip
Malmö FF showed in the first leg when they conceded a goal
intermittent 1: 1 equalization temporarily inattentive, but now benefits from the fact that the away goal is no longer as important as in previous seasons. The Himmelsblått do not have to push for an away goal of their own and would not have been eliminated after 90 minutes even if they were 0-1 deficit, but would still have extra time.
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Because of this very starting position, we suspect that the guests from Sweden will defend highly concentrated over 90 minutes and only act offensively via counterattacks or standards with appropriate defensive protection. If there are no very early goals, the value for a low-goal match is extremely high.
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For less than 2.5 goals, HJK against Malmö has betting odds of 1.93 available, which we play with four units at Betano, the bookmaker tested by Wettbasis.
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