Atletico Madrid - Athletic Bilbao: Tips, prognosis & odds - 13.01.2022 - SPAIN: Super Cup
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Atletico Madrid - Athletic Bilbao: Tips, prognosis & odds - 13.01.2022 - SPAIN: Super Cup
Will Atlético make it into the Supercoppa final against Bilbao?
Atlético Madrid receives Athletic Bilbao in the Supercopa semi-finals at King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh. The La Liga first leg in Madrid ended 0-0. Nonetheless, the rojiblancos are somewhat of a favorite. This semi-final could be balanced due to the fact that it is being held in Saudi Arabia, which is why we would rely on the rise of the Madrilenians as a safety tip instead of a win bet on Atlético.
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There can be no question of a home advantage in this encounter. The fact is that Atlético has often emerged victorious from previous direct duels. Only in the last 2 meetings did the Rojiblancos not win. They had to accept 1 draw and 1 defeat. Both presented themselves equally strong this La Liga season. The Madrilenians are in 5th place after 20 games with 33 points and the Basques in 9th place in the table after 21 matchdays with 28 points. In the past 5 matchdays even Bilbao was stronger than Atlético because of 3 wins and 1 draw, which were good for 1 draw and 2 wins. So they gave up twice as well. Nevertheless, both clubs have been unbeaten for 3 competitive games.
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The Basques caused a big surprise last season and first eliminated Real Madrid in the semi-finals of the Supercopa, then defeated FC Barcelona in the final after extra time.
Will Atlético Madrid live up to their role as favorites?
Atlético Madrid have already been in the Supercopa 6 times, always in the final and in 2013/14, when they participated in the penultimate round, they won the trophy for the first and so far last time. 2019/20 ended in the final.
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The Rojiblancos have played 8 competitive games since December. They decided only 3 of them and they only managed to draw 1. So they gave up four times. The Basques' performance is almost similar in comparison. In the Primera Division they had 5 wins in front of their home crowd and suffered 3 draws and 1 defeat.
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In a foreign country 4 wins and 3 draws were possible. They gave up four times. The home goal balance is 14: 6 and the away goal balance is 19:18. The Rojiblancos were also able to qualify for the Champions League round of 16 and they are also in the round of 16 in the Copa del Rey.
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Atletico Madrid - statistics & current form
Atletico Madrid's performances this season have not been consistent: After four league defeats in a row - which was a negative record under coach Simeone - Atletico was finally able to celebrate a victory again after the short Christmas break against city and table neighbors Rayo Vallecano (2-0 ). In the Copa del Rey, this was followed by an effortless 5-0 win against third division club Rayo Majadahonda.
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But just a few days later there was another point loss in La Liga. At Villarreal, Atletico didn’t get more than 2-2 - and didn’t necessarily cover themselves with fame for long stretches of the game. Form and consistency are currently not right at Atletico, which of course makes the tip on the reigning champions a bit tricky before Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao.
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Of course, betting on the Rojiblancos' victory in the three-way can also be interesting at the same time. Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao Unibet is currently offering betting odds of 2.00 on the win after 90 minutes - the top odds among the best betting providers.
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The better football team should undoubtedly be Atletico on Thursday evening, the only question is whether the Simeone team also shows the difference in quality on the pitch? It is precisely the vulnerability of the defensive that troubles the Rojiblancos and is responsible for the many point losses this season. It conceded goals in 15 of the 20 La Liga games of the season. Will Bilbao also score against the champions? At Bwin there would be a 1.66 for this - the rate, which is not necessarily high, speaks for itself.
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Expected formation of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak - Llorente, Gimenez, Hermoso, Lodi - Carrasco, Koke, De Paul, Lemar - Suarez, Correa
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Athletic Bilbao - stats & current form
Athletic Bilbao is not really consistent this season either. This is shown by a look at the La Liga table, where the Basques are only ninth. But of course this doesn't really play a role for the semi-finals in the Supercup, in a knockout game including extra time and penalty shoot-outs, of course, anything is possible.
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And it is precisely these games that particularly appeal to Athletic Bilbao. Bilbao is a typical cup team. Two seasons in a row, 2019/20 and 2020/21, the Athletic Club from Bilbao made it into the final of the Copa del Rey - but lost both finals. On the other hand, they prevailed against Real Madrid (2: 1) and Barcelona (3: 2 a.s.) in last year's Supercup in the Final Four and won the title.
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For this reason, we at Atletico Madrid against Athletic Bilbao find the tip on the Basques anything but absurd. Anyone who even believes in the victory of coach Marcelino's team after 90 minutes will receive a whopping 4.20 odds on this forecast at Atletico Madrid against Athletic Bilbao.
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Expected formation of Athletic Bilbao:
Simon - de Marcos, Alvarez, Martinez, Balenziaga - Berenguer, D. Garcia, Vencedor, Muniain - R. Garcia, Williams
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Atlético Madrid and Athletic Bilbao in direct comparison
This pairing has occurred 183 times so far. The Rojiblancos celebrated 85 victories and 66 the Basques. They shared the points 32 times. In 1950 they met in the Supercopa. They parted first 5: 5 and Bilbao won the play-off 2-0. In the last 10 direct duels, the Madrilenians were a little more successful. They won 6 games and the Basques only won 2 games. They tied twice.
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In the 10 matches there were 5 times more than 2.5 goals and 6 times both teams scored. The first half ended in a draw 6 times. Atlético won the second half of the game 5 times.
But a new draw after 90 minutes doesn't seem unlikely at the moment, given Atletico's fickle form.
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Betting base forecast & Spain Atletico Madrid - Athletic Bilbao Spain: Tip
Will the favorite prevail? Last year this was not the case twice - both times Athletic Bilbao annoyed favorites Barça and Real and surprisingly secured the Supercopa. A semi-final would be the next blow in the neck for Atletico Madrid in a very turbulent season in which it has already set various bankruptcies and point losses.
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So a draw after 90 minutes and even a progression of the Basques wouldn't really surprise us. We believe in a very competitive matter, the outcome of the three-way is difficult for us to predict, which is why we prefer to give the following prognosis at Atletico Madrid against Bilbao: At halftime there will be a draw in the dressing room.
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Our forecasts
It speaks more for a victory by Atlético Madrid, which is why a tip 1 is of course a good idea, but a draw after 90 minutes is not excluded. Therefore, we would rather bet on a rise of the Rojiblancos. Here the odds are still reasonably useful. We tend not to expect that both teams will score, although a placement like the one at a zero win for Atlético involves risk. The goal balances of both also indicate under 2.5 goals.
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